Yep
– it's that time of year again....
The
end of February is the period when some early birds are already
feeling the urge to leave behind the lazy sunshine of west Africa and
head for the wet and still-wintry north lands where they will breed.
A timely start to migration is important for all birds, and adult
ospreys in particular. Even though parts of northern Europe may
still be blanketed by snow, they can reach staging areas in Spain,
Portugal or France where food is available while they wait for Spring
to take a firmer hold.
 |
| Atlantic low-pressure weather system (c) McMichael 2018 (Click for full-size) |
This
time last year, these early migrators had a “goldilocks” window
to assist them – and this season, the exact same condition has
arisen again. This MODIS satellite picture shows a large circulating
low-pressure system in the eastern Atlantic. Winds on its
south-eastern quadrant are swinging round to create the long-distance
coastal flyway up through Mauritania and Morocco, while still leaving
open the Gibraltar straits, where wind speeds will be light.
Running
the forecast models a bit further on reveals that a second Atlantic
low is developing behind the first, and the models suggest that it
will be on the same track. Unlike 2017, this means that the
migration “window” could remain open for much longer – possibly
out to the 5th March and maybe even beyond that.
 |
| GFS model forecast for 25 Feb 2018. (Click for full-size) |
It
will be interesting to see what kind of reports come in from the key
watch points over the next ten days or so.
-WlW
 |
| Kielder Forest Partnership |
